Key Points

• As of today, the odds of recession are much higher than ever before. According to new data,the probabilities for recession in the next year are up by 20 basis points from CNBC’s May survey. There is a 55% probability for a recession in the next 12 months.
• While we have never had a recession without two quarters of negative growth this is not necessarily the definition of a recession. A recession is a pervasive pronounced contraction of the economy.

• In terms of actual declining growth and increase in unemployment, the Fed is going to have to keep tightening until it sees some evidence that inflation is heading back down to the 2% level.
• It is very difficult to have a recession if you don’t have a major impact on the employment market. When you do get an increase of half a point or more in unemployment, that's when you start to get a contraction in the economy. These numbers are difficult to gauge right now due to how quickly everything is happening along with workers bringing employees back that had previously been let go.

Key Points

• It is imperative to note that the market has gotten ahead of itself and rate hikes will realistically do nothing to slow inflation.
• Much of inflation is “demand destructive”. Inflation itself could cure itself considering high prices often cure high prices.

• The area people are getting hit the hardest comes from non-discretionary normal living costs & expenses. Food and energy prices are just over 20% percent of household spending whereas shelter is about 55%.
• Geopolitics plays a huge role in whatever outcome we see with inflation. Considering Ukrainian and Russian markets account for 30% of wheat supply and a significant amount of oil, the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly extended supply disruption. Beijing also played a contributing factor as a result of its lockdown due to COVID.

Key Points

• According to data from CNBC’s survey, 57% of members think this ends in a recession, most (53%) see it being a moderate recession. 41% however , foresee a more mild recession
• Despite constant talk of a recession, a recession is not necessarily coming in the next 12 months, it is far more likely halfway into 2023.

• There has been overwhelming and broad political support for fighting inflation which doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon, even ahead of the midterms
• Consumer spending is currently meeting and exceeding inflation level. This points to the fact that real spending remains up.
• Consumers will go into savings over temporary shifts in prices, but they won't do it if they believe it to be more permanent. The idea of inflation being temporary creates temporary habit changes in people's spending for the time being.

Key Points

• While it may seem impossible for the Fed. to get it right based on survey results, good things are in fact coming for the U.S. economy. Despite a much higher chance of recession compared to previous results, with wages on the rise and lower unemployment rates, labor is certainly improving within the country.
• It is imperative to pay attention to big tech companies in the next few months. As a result of drastic increases in oil prices, many companies will have to respond in ways that haven’t been done yet. These tech companies however will likely be the least affected by such inflation.

Key Points

• According to a survey, 91% of respondents believe the fed. is late in addressing the issue of inflation. Respondents are still optimistic the economy will do well as long as it reaches a point where it is able to fight inflation.
• America however will still have to deal with supply chain issues as well as the effects of the virus on supplies. There has also been a significant rise in consumer demands over the past months.